They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens. NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. The Chiefs win This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. Chark will help Lawrence out immensely, especially with James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne capable of creating a balanced rushing attack. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. A really strong offense, but their defense hurt their overall grade since there were less teams in the league. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL 15. Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. 28. Jets, vs. Eagles, vs. Lions, vs. Bengals and a home-and-home with the Raiders. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. Same goes for this one. Trent Dilfer. The one Peyton let get away. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. This year, theres a chance theyre 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. They have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and rookie QB.. Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. 1 pick, Ex-Patriots star McGinest facing eight years in prison, Commanders rip 'blatantly false' team sale report, Last Super Bowl appearance: 2016 (Super Bowl 50), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2017 (Super Bowl LI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1990 (Super Bowl XXIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1977 (Super Bowl XI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009 (Super Bowl XLIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2000 (Super Bowl XXXIV), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1994 (Super Bowl XXVIII). The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). All rights reserved. 4. Brown, setting the stage for Jones to have a huge first season in Tennessee. Seattle Seahawks +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game! 5h. This team just wasn't ready to win it all yet, but still a very good all-around team with a sneaky productive defense. The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. Yeah, this one wasnt compelling for neutral viewers. A.J. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. The Dirty Bird Falcons werent a match for the best team John Elway played on. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. Forget about Super Bowl history, this was one of the best games in the history of American sports. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. This team just wasn't ready yet. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. Obsessed with travel? Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. Minnesota Vikings +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total), I want to like Minnesota as a buy-low team after rebuilding its defense.. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Super Bowl V. 12. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. New York's passing attack was somewhere between awful and mediocre. On footballs biggest stage we want games featuring memorable teams, star players, plays that well never forget and compelling storylines. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. They faced perfection, so how can you be harsh when talking about them? 51. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Superbowl, but they didnt score many touch A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. Webworst defense to win super bowlaiken county sc register of deeds worst defense to win super bowl The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. Both of those teams went on to lose in the Super Bowl. ONCE. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. Despite the memorable moments, this game was a bit of a letdown with two Hall of Fame quarterbacks not putting on the offensive show we expected. The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. Please check your email for a confirmation. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. Defensively, they were 22nd in points scored against, and it showed in the Super Bowl. The Jaguars are still going to be exciting to watch in 2021 as Urban Meyer is the best college coach to enter the NFL in years, having arguably the most talented quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. Reporting on what you care about. 1: 3: 17: 313: 305: 40.0: Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. and a dramatic finish. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. 1 pick. The 2007 New England Patriots won every game (160) and did so in tremendous fashion. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Stroud showed love to Justin Fields when explaining why he doesn't the Bears to draft him: 'That's his team', The Red Sox found a loophole in the MLB shift ban and it stinks for Joey Gallo, Survivor 44: Meet the castaways who will compete for $1 million in Fiji, Mets fans hilariously embraced basketball tactics to confuse players on the pitch clock, The Warriors left Russell Westbrook ridiculously wide open and it worked to perfection, Watch: Man tries feeding bison near Yellowstone; it doesnt go well, 2023 NFL Combine Winners Day 1: Blazing-fast DTs give the Bears plenty to consider, Ranking all 32 NFL teams' helmet logos, from worst to best, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. 3. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. New York Jets +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL (10 years). Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. This isn't just about winning the closely contested division, though. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. You won't believe how good some of these teams were. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. The first half ended with James Harrisons lung-busting interception return. Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. San Francisco's three games based on last year's standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. If Baker Mayfield improves from last season's campaign, the Browns will contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. Aaron Rodgers capped off a brilliant playoff run with a masterful performance against one of the leagues best defenses. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. 25. New York Giants +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The market doesnt like the Giants, but they were 9-5 ATS as an underdog last year. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. Again, this is all dependent on how Darnold plays. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. A special season in Tennessee could be in store. Their defense only gave up 9.5 points per game in a 14-game season. The game that confirmed Joe Flacco was elite. This should have been a great game. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. At 133, this New England Patriots offense was extraordinary, but their defense was lacking and kept them out of the top 20. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Colin Kaepernick came in on a hot streak, but unfortunately, this team's attrition failed them as the team consisted of older players. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. ), and every Texans opponent's win total is inflated for the same reason. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion.. The NFL regular season begins in just days. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total), Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. Buffalo actually led going into halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half. The Tennessee Titans are one of 12 teams in the NFL to have never won a Super Bowl, and according to one writer, they are the furthest away from doing so of those dozen teams. Just how goofy was this game? How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber.