2016 bellwether counties

Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. 3. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Contributors wanted We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. (subject to censorship). PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. This county voted with the popular vote each time. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. All rights reserved. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Telegram Telegram Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Trump won 18 of the 19. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. The divisions were everywhere. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). But it's still indicative of widespread support. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. These are the bellwether counties. 5. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Outstanding. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. 03:30. TIP: It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Election night is going to be information overload. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Enter Donald Trump. Dont simply gloss over this. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Seriously. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Their emotions and decision making process are real. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. First, what are bellwether counties? If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Team up with others in your region, and help out by With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Want to dive deeper? A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. (i.e. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. University of Denver, 2. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). These counties could play an . Hillary Clinton (578) Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). 2020 Election (1210) A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Ron Elving . HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Nobody forgot about politics.". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. It's happened before. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Their concerns are real. Will That Last?]. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. We believe this was a mistake. 9. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Still, the state's worth watching. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.)

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